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Monday, June 26, 2006

Market Trend Analysis

By Yaser Anwar, CSC of Equity Investment Ideas

Most of the major indices ended the week just below where they were last week. The one exception, the DJ-20, managed to go much higher. The NASDAQ Composite ended the week at 2121 just below the 20MA. The DJ-20 managed to break above all the moving averages, and is holding just below the 4800 resistance level. The DJ-30 could not break the 11,100 resistance level and ended the week below 11,000.

The OEX is below all the moving averages, and also looks weak. The same is true for the QQQQ, the SOX, and the S&P500. Last week we mentioned the fact that most of the major indices couldn't penetrate that resistance level. It is true for this week as well, which is an indication of market weakness. We may see the market continue sideways or move lower.

At this point we see a weaker market direction. Remember, even in a weaker market there are some rallies, but these rallies are not as strong as in an uptrend market. For the long term we are still in an uptrend direction, while for the short term we are in a downtrend. Remember to reduce the lot size and number of trading transactions during this choppy market.

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