Insightful analysis and commentary for the US and global equity investor
Contributors: Douglas McIntyre Jon C. Ogg

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Friday, July 28, 2006

Weekly Wrap (July 28, 2006)

Daily Change:
DJIA 11,219.70; Up 119.27 (1.07%)
NASDAQ 2,094.14; Up 39.67 (1.93%)
S&P 500 1,278.55; Up 15.35 (1.22%)
10YR-Bond 4.99%

Point Changes for the week in US Index trading:
DJIA: +351.32
NASDAQ: +73.75
S&P 500: +38.26

Stock Tickers: MSFT INTC IBM JPM AA C CAT GE MMM UTX HON JNJ PFE KO MCD WMT AXP MO T XOM GM DD BA MRK

This was one of the best weeks for the markets since last year. Israel's attacks into Lebanon haven't spilled over elsewhere and the street has convinced itself that a Q2 reading on GDP of 2.5% is an engineered soft landing out of the Fed. They are now betting that August will essentially be it for the fed rate hikes.

With well over 250 companies reporting earnings each day, it is pretty difficult to single these out. We decided once again to show a wrap-up of how the DJIA 30 components have performed since each reported earnings. We will have some DJIA and S&P components having their estimates trimmed by rating and analytics agencies, but the earnings from the DJIA components have actually been ok. Here we compare the average DJIA component's closing price the day before earnings to the close today (July 28). We have now had 22 of the 30 DJIA components report earnings or give guidance since the start of the month.

PRIOR EARNINGS

Microsoft (MSFT): on July 20 after the close MSFT beat earnings at $0.31 EPS vs $0.30e, but announced its two $20 billion share buyback plans.
July 20 Close: $22.85
July 28 close: $24.28

Intel (INTC): on July 19 after the close INTC reported earnings of $0.15 EPS vs $0.138e, but we won't bother reminding the poor guidance impact.
July 19 close: $18.49
July 28 close: $18.19

IBM (IBM): on July 18 after the close IBM reported EPS at $1.30 vs. $1.29e.
July 18 close: $74.26
July 28 close: $76.96

JPMorgan (JPM): on July 19 pre-market JPM reported $0.99 EPS vs $0.87e, but its CFO said to use $0.94 as EPS so it still Beat Estimates.
July 18 close: $40.71
July 28 close: 45.46

Alcoa (AA): On July 10 after the close AA beat earnings with $0.90 EPS vs $0.86e, but it was $0.86 after estimates so it met expectations.
July 10 close: $33.41
July 28 close: $29.70

Citigroup (C): Citigroup reported on July 17 pre-market EPS of $1.05 from operations vs. $1.05e, but items created a missed earnings reaction.
July 14 close: $47.58
July 28 close: $48.33

Caterpillar (CAT): on the morning of July 21 CAT reported EPS of $1.52 vs $1.43e.
July 20 close: $69.08
July 28 close: $71.18

General Electric (GE): GE reported on the morning of July 14 EPS of $0.47 EPS vs $0.47e.
July 13 close: $32.67
July 28 close: $32.95

3M (MMM): MMM on July 7 right before the open came clean and lowered guidance ahead of earnings.
July 6 close: $81.39
July 28 close: $70.47

United Tech (UTX): On July 18 pre-market UTX beat earnings with $1.09 EPS vs. $1.01+e.
July 17 close: $57.96
July 28 close: $62.09

Honeywell (HON): HON reported pre-market on July 20 of $0.63 EPS vs $0.61e, but items were a concern.
July 19 close: $38.24
July 28 close: $38.25

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): J&J posted earnings pre-market on July 18 of $0.98 EPS vs $0.97e.
July 17 close: $60.91
July 28 close: $62.89

Pfizer (PFE): on July 20 pre-market PFE reported earnings at $0.50 EPS vs $0.48e.
July 19 close: $23.30
July 28 close: $26.00

Coca-Cola (KO): on July 18 pre-market KO beat earnings with $0.74 EPS vs $0.72e.
July 17 close: $42.70
July 28 close: $44.52

McDonalds (MCD):MCD on July 17 pre-market gave preliminary guidance of $0.57 EPS vs $0.56e.
July 14 close: $33.04
July 28 close: $35.29

Wal-Mart (WMT): WMT on July 6 pre-market issued EPS guidance of $0.70 to $0.74 on lower sales vs. $0.73e.
July 5 close: $47.02
July 28 close: $$44.50

THIS WEEK's EARNINGS

American Express (AXP): On July 24 AXP reported EPS of $0.76 vs $0.74e, was $0.78 from operations.
July 21 close: $50.62
July 28 close: $52.19

Altria (MO): On July 25, Altria posted EPS of $1.41 vs $1.37e.
July 24 close: $79.49
July 28 close: $80.65

AT&T (T): Only July 25 AT&T reported EPS of $0.58 vs $0.53e.
July 24 close: $27.78
July 28 close: $29.99

Exxon Mobil (XOM): On July 27 Exxon showed $1.72 EPS vs $1.64e.
July 26 close: $66.60
July 28 close: $66.98

General Motors (GM): on July 26 GM showed $2.03 EPS after gains and benefits, well above estimates. The bottom line is debatable, but it was a huge beat.
July 25 close: $30.66
July 28 close: $32.30

DuPont (DD): on July 25 DD showed EPS at $1.01 EPS vs $0.95e.
July 25 close: $40.67
July 28 close: $40.15

Boeing (BA): on July 26 Boeing posted -$0.21 EPS vs -$0.21e.
July 25 Close: $83.75
July 28 close: $78.84

Merck (MRK) Merck posted earnings on July 24 of $0.73 EPS vs $0.65e.
July 21 close: $37.36
July 28 close: $41.10

These are the earnings we are still expecting: VZ PG WMT HPQ HD AIG BA DIS.

Jon C. Ogg
July 28, 2008
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