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Friday, June 30, 2006

Microsoft, Just Shoot Me

Microsoft was hit with back-to-back bad news recently.

First, Office 2007 will be released late this year and not in the Fall. Maybe. Microsoft is now releasing products late on an ever-increasing basis. The company's new operating system, Vista, has also been hit with delays. Aside from the embarrassment of having major software releases constantly delayed, there is another, more important, impact.

A look at Microsoft's public filing shows the extent to which the OS and Office products drive the huge majority of the company's operating income. Continued late releases are bound to catch up to the company's financials as customers wait to upgrade to new versions. Sales could certainly be hurt in the fourth quarter of this year.

In addition, Microsoft lost another key employee to Google. This adds to the public perception that Google has the hot hand in software development and consumer sentiment and that Microsoft has seen its best days.

If the delayed release in software hits the topline and earnings this year, Microsoft's stock could drop below $20 for the first time since 1998. The stock has already been as low as $21.46 over the last 52-week period.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@gmail.com. He does not own securities in companies he writes about.
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