Has The Fed Finished?
By Yaser Anwar of Stock Market Beat
* Uncertainty about Fed policy will persist for several more months, but investors betting on the odds of a pause in August, in my opinion, will be disappointed .
* The Fed's post meeting statement acknowledged that the economy has softened, but the Fed remains concerned about inflation.
* Future actions will still depend on trends in the data. If it becomes apparent over the summer that housing weakness is spreading into overall consumer spending as some expect, then the odds will favor a pause at the August meeting.
* However, the Fed would continue to leave its options open, so market fears would not be totally calmed.
* Even if the tightening cycle has now ended, this may not become totally apparent before the fall, so markets will continue to trade nervously for a while.
Source: BCA Research
http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/
* Uncertainty about Fed policy will persist for several more months, but investors betting on the odds of a pause in August, in my opinion, will be disappointed .
* The Fed's post meeting statement acknowledged that the economy has softened, but the Fed remains concerned about inflation.
* Future actions will still depend on trends in the data. If it becomes apparent over the summer that housing weakness is spreading into overall consumer spending as some expect, then the odds will favor a pause at the August meeting.
* However, the Fed would continue to leave its options open, so market fears would not be totally calmed.
* Even if the tightening cycle has now ended, this may not become totally apparent before the fall, so markets will continue to trade nervously for a while.
Source: BCA Research
http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/
posted by douglas mcintyre at 2:38 PM
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