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Tuesday, July 04, 2006

LCD Panel Market Update

Stocks: (SNE)

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

LCD-TV panel shipments continued to increase in May despite inventory concerns in Europe, rising 2% on-month and 124% on-year to 3.5 million units, while LCD-panel suppliers switched from shipments by air in April, which targeted World Cup demand, to surface transportation in May, targeting third-quarter demand, according to DisplaySearch.

Sony expects to ship eight million LCD TVs in FY2007

Sony expects to increase its global LCD TV shipments to eight million units in Fiscal 2007, according to Makoto Kogure, president of Sony’s TV Group and company senior vice president.

Kogure indicated that global demand for flat panel TVs is expected to jump significantly in the next few years. By 2008, flat panel TVs will account for 42% of the overall TV market, up from a 32% share in 2007. LCD TV will account for 75% of the flat panel TV market, rising from 52% in 2005, added Kogure.

By fiscal 2007 (April 2007- March 2008), demand for global LCD TVs will reach 80-100 million units, up from 50 million units in fiscal 2006 (April 2006-March 2007), he noted.

In response to recent inventory issues in the LCD TV market, Kogure pointed out that the company has no plans to slow down its schedule for next-generation LCD plant expansion amid strong demand for its own-brand LCD TV business. Sony’s joint venture with Samsung Electronics, S-LCD, expects to enter volume production at its eighth-generation (8G) plant in August 2007, Kogure said.

There is no doubt that demand for flat-panel TVs is growing rapidly. The concern is that supply is growing faster. For example, during the first quarter LCD TV shipments from HANNspree totaled 150,000 units. The Taiwan-based LCD TV maker aims to ship one million units in the fourth quarter.

The excess supply is resulting in faster than normal price reductions, which are being pushed back on suppliers. With large-size panel prices continuing to fall, panel makers have been pressuring key component makers to lower their quotes, causing the component makers to remain cautious about the third quarter. Quotes for LCD key components fell by up to 20% in June since panel makers were aggressive in lowering their costs to better their profitability, according to the Chinese-language Economic Daily News.

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