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Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Out on a Limb

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

We have pointed out several analyst estimates for handset growth. We point this one out only for its blandness.Annual Global Mobile Handset Shipments to Reach 1.5 Billion in 2011, Says Analysys

Annual shipments of mobile handsets will reach 1.5 billion worldwide in 2011 as handset categories evolve into three broad types, comprising voice-centric, converged-function and specialist handsets, according to a new report, Evolution of Mobile Handsets to 2011 and Beyond: market analysis and forecasts, published by Analysys, the global advisers on telecoms, IT and media (
1.5 billion units by 2011 represents an annual growth rate of approximately 8.5%, almost a no-brainer with the penetration of China and India still on the upswing.

We might consider reading a report that predicted 2 billion units, or half-a-billion. The authors might be crazy but we’d be interested to learn why. For this one, we might as well get last year’s figure and add a random growth rate.

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