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Thursday, July 27, 2006

Sell into this strength 'cause Fed will raise rate

By Yaser Anwar, CSC of Stock Market Beat

The government reported that orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket jumped by a durable goods stronger than expected 3.1& in June, powered by a rebound in demand for commercial aircraft.

The Labor Department said that the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits last week fell by 7K to 298K, indicating continued strength in the labor market even though job growth has slowed in recent months.

For June, orders for durable goods, items expected to last at least three years, totaled $216.3 billion, an increase of $6.52 billion from the May level.

Excluding transportation, orders were up a solid 1 percent in June with strength being shown in demand for computers, communication equipment and primary metals such as steel.

Tomorrow's GDP report, which i expect to be stronger than expected (atleast 3.2%), will further add to my belief that Fed will now raise rates two more times.

Bottom Line: The strength in business investment shows the economy, even though slowing, is still doing better than expected. Falling unemployment claims means companies are hiring thus adding wage pressure. The market is showing strength due to two days of stellar earnings by Dow components (CAT, BA, GM & XOM). I think you should sell into it 'cause the Fed will be raising rates two more times.

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