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Contributors: Douglas McIntyre Jon C. Ogg

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Saturday, September 02, 2006

Weekend Edition: Where's The Bottom For Techs?


Wall St gurus make the point that catching a falling knife is usually a bad idea. At least for individual stocks. No matter how far down a stock goes, it may go "Enron" on investors, and they are left with nothing.

But what about an entire sector. In that case, entire industries are unlikely to just vanish, so how low is too low when you look at a large basket of stocks.

How about a few big ones in the tech sector. Internet companies. PC guys. Chips. Telecom equipment makers.

Yahoo! is down 32% from its high over the last 52 weeks. And, it is still growing and makes money. eBay is down 38%. Amazon is down 38%.

Intel is down down 29%. AMD is down 42%. Broadcom is down 43%. Qualcomm is down 28%

Dell is down 37%. Apple is down 21%.

PMC Sierra is off 51%. JDS Uniphase is off 47%. Ciena is off 31%.

With very few exceptions, these stocks are the big volume techs. Each trades 20 million to 30 million shares in a day, without perspiring.

And, they can't go down forever. At least not all of them.

Someone out there is buying a basket of these things on the projection that most will come back. Maybe it takes a year. Maybe two. But it would not be surprising.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at He does not own stocks in companies that he writes about.

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