24/7 Wall St.: November 2006

Contributors: Douglas McIntyre Jon C. Ogg

Friday, November 17, 2006

China Car Market: What If Everyone's Market Share Goes Up 100%

Stocks: (GM)(F)(TM)(HMC)

Toyota says that its market share in China should rise 30% next year to about 400,000 cars. Ford says its share there should double next year. It has sold 118,000 cars through October. GM says it will increase it current share in Asia from 6.5% to 10% with most of the unit increase coming in China.

None of this includes the plans of companies like Nissan, VW, or DaimlerChrysler. Not to mentions the locals.

Perhaps China is growing so fast that all of the major car companies can reach a share of 100% in the huge Asian country. But, if that doesn't work, someone is going to be disappointed.

You can count on it.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

It’s That Time of Year for Intuit

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Last month we pointed out that Intuit (INTU) tends to trade in a seasonal pattern, with the annual price peak occurring late in the calendar year. True to form, the stock was down after hours after Intuit reported earnings for their first fiscal quarter yesterday:

Intuit Inc. (Nasdaq:INTU - News) today announced its first-quarter 2007 revenue increased 19 percent over the year-ago quarter to $362.1 million. Growth was primarily driven by strong sales of its QuickBooks software and add-on solutions, payroll and payments. Approximately $20 million of first-quarter revenue was attributed to the September launch of QuickBooks 2007, which was about 30 days earlier than last year. Without this earlier launch, revenue growth would have been approximately 12 percent.

Forward-looking Guidance
Intuit reaffirmed its previously-given revenue and earnings per share guidance for the second quarter of fiscal 2007 and provided operating income guidance for the first time. Intuit expects:
* Revenue of $743 million to $760 million, or year-over-year growth of 0 percent to 2 percent.* GAAP operating income of $185 million to $204 million, and non-GAAP operating income of $211 million to $230 million.* GAAP diluted earnings per share, or EPS, of $0.34 to $0.37, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.39 to $0.42.

Intuit also reaffirmed its previously given third quarter, fourth quarter, and full year fiscal 2007 guidance for revenue and earnings per share, details of which are available on Intuit’s Web site at www.intuit.com/about_intuit/investors/earnings/2006/.

The guidance was slightly below consensus expectations, but that’s what the consensus gets for making estimates outside the high end of management’s guidance range. We bought put options following our earlier article, and still own them. It’s another one of those things that worked the way we expected it to.

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.

The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) shares were off slightly after reporting that earnings beat consensus estimates - if you are willing to view their recurrent restructuring charges as non-recurring. While they have had their share of troubles this quarter, you have to hand it to them for reporting at all, the way things are going in tech-land (with everyone either delaying their report or giving partial data while being investigated by the SEC.)

Revenues grew 7% year/year. That is not an exciting number, but at least it is better than some others we have seen.

Inventories grew faster than sales, which management explained on the conference call thusly:
Next, the balance sheet. HP’s inventory came in at $7.8 billion, up $873 million year over year and up $286 million sequentially. Inventory days of supply stands at 38 days, up from 35 days last year and down from 41 days sequentially. The year-over-year increase in inventory reflects volume growth, strategic buys and supply chain changes designed to optimize our cost structure. The sequential increase is in line with normal seasonality.

We’re still a little skeptical, but the explanation is within the bounds of reason. Again, while not a major concern it was nothing to brag about.
Overall, we agree with the after-market response to the report. This was a decent but unspectacular quarter for Hewlett Packard.

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.

The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

Oil Revisited

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

When we last visited the oil patch, we found the arguments against higher oil prices lacking. It remains our view that demand for oil is rising at a faster pace than supplies of oil, and that the imbalance will be solved through the price mechanism. We don’t think the correction is even close to done.

However, an article we found in Oil & Gas Journal titled CERA study challenges ‘peak oil’ theory suggested it was time to update our analysis.

The article states:
The “peak oil” theory, stipulating that world oil production will soon peak and sharply decline, is flawed, according to an analysis by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).

Instead of a peak, CERA says, production is more likely to trace an “undulating plateau” that will last for a decade or more beyond 2030.

It seems of little consequence to us, as we believe demand will continue to rise without further drastic discouragement through higher prices. Whether supply is declining or flat, it will not keep pace with demand. The article continues:
The CERA report contends that the often-cited Hubbert model, which patterns production as a bell curve, fails to recognize that recoverable reserve estimates evolve with time and are subject to significant change. The model also underplays the impact of technological advances.
Although M. King Hubbert accurately predicted timing of the peak in US Lower 48 oil production in 1970, the CERA study says, he underestimated the peak rate by 20% and total cumulative Lower 48 production during 1970-2005 by 15 billion bbl.

Again, not exactly right is likely to be close enough for our theory to play out.

With the recent drop in prices, days of inventory made a run at breaking out of the long-term downtrend. However, the breakout failed and stocks remain low compared to long-term averages.

We’ll stick to our long position in the oil ETF (USO).

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.

The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

GM Boasts About Asia (GM)(HMC)(F)(TM)(DX)

US car executives cannot keep bragging about how well they will do in Asia. GM is now saying it believes it can raise its share in the region from 6.5% to 10% by 2010.

Those looking for a reason for the optimism won't find any. GM makes the statment but has nothing to back it up.

What GM wants Wall St. to believe that cars and small trucks that are bested by vehicles from Toyota and Honda in the US market will do better overseas. Toyota, Honda, VW, Nissan, Ford, Daimler and a pack of other companies want the share as much as GM does.

In 1995, GM's US share was nearly 33%. By 2005, it had fallen to just above 26%. And, Toyota is still gaining share in GM's home market.

Asia, of course, will be different. There GM's models will level Toyota, Honda, and local car company offerings.

When pigs fly.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

VoIP Comes Of Age (VG)(CMCSA)(TMS)(TWX)(EBAY)

The ViOP bandwagon is getting fairly full. After early service like Ebay's Skype and Vonage signed on millions of customers, the cable companies (especially Comcast and Time Warner) found the ViOP was a good way to steal customers from their telecom competitors. It has worked so well that 5.1 million of the US VoIP subscribers as measured at the end of September took their service from cable providers. The total number of US customers rose to 8.2 million, up from 3.5 million a year ago.

One of the complaints about VoIP, especially early versions, is the customers needed a PC or special adapters to make the service work. The experience was different from simply picking up a telephone and dialing. Other knocks against VoIP is the it had no 911 service. That is changing. Of course, if electricity is off, VoIP doesn't work either. They are still working on that one.

Thomson, the big French electronics firm, is beginning to offer a new VoIP handset, made by GE. (One has to wonder why GE does not market the product on its own.)

Thomson's product will be sold to subsribers of SunRocket, a US VoIP service with 170,000 subscribers. The new device can simply plug into a high-speed internet line and it works as a normal phone would. If you have SunRocket service. Companies like Uniden already have similar products.

Why Thomson would market a phone exclusively with one of the smaller VoIP companies is puzzling. The firm is locking itself out of over 95% of the US market.

Thomson may be dumb, but VoIP is gaining ground like a house on fire, and that will continue.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

VoIP Comes Of Age (VG)(CMCSA)(TMS)(TWX)(EBAY)

Ghosn And Nissan Get Blackballed (DCX)(F)(GM)

Carlos Ghosn, the sell-proclaimed greatest car executive in history, is finding that linking up with a US partner for his Nissan/Renault combine has proved more difficult than he thought. Of course, Nissan is not in first place in Japan and Renault is not a major player in Europe, so perhaps Detroit is wary.

Ghosn now says that he is "not ready" to find a partner in the US. What he is not mentioning is that no one is taking. GM has turned him down. Ford seems prepared to go it alone, even if that plan leads to its demise. DaimlerChrysler does not need him. With large operations in the US and Europe, DCX is an unlikely partner.

Perhaps if Ghosn would stop watching the pot, it would eventually boil. He may have retired before that day comes.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

While Ford's Sales Double In China, Will It Be Around To Enjoy It

Stocks: (F)(GM)(TM)(HMC)

Ford is boasting that it will double sales in China, over and over again. But, the No. 2 car company in the US only sells about 100,000 cars in the big Asian nation. Rival GM will sell over 850,000 cars there this year.

Ford is still being bloodied in it home market, so the talk of China gains is whistling past the graveyard. Over the last decade, Ford's US share has dropped from 25.8% to 18.3%. During the same timeframe, Toyota's market share has rise from 13.3% from 7.4%. Honda's has risen from 5.4% to 8.6%.

Ford has actually predicted its US share will drop as low as 14%. Its $5 billion in annual cost cuts may bring North American operations to the point where they are cashflow positive, but that is a long way off. And, there is no guarantee that the company's forecast of a 14% bottom is accurate. Ford could hardly have predicted its current sales when it had almost 26% of its home market.

Ford management needs to shut-up about China. The company not be around to enjoy it progress there.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Investors Get Ticked At Starbucks (SBUX)(MCD)

Wall St. took shares in Starbucks down by over 5% after hours as the company announced a 21% improvement in quarterly revenue to $2 billion. The company forecast that it would open 2,400 stores in the next twelve months. It also said that investors could expect another 20% increase in revenue.

Profits dropped 5.6% to $117 million, but this was due to changes in the company's accounting policies.

The key to the numbers was simple. Starbucks is still growin 20%. It grew 20% in fiscal 2005. It grew 21% in the recent quarter. It forecast 20% growth for next year. Off of an annual revenue run rate of $8 billion, the figure is extraordinary.

Starbucks has the stated and ambitious goal of eventually having 40,000 stores worldwide. At the end of this fiscal year, the figure was about 14,000, and, if the company's projections are right, that will be nearing 17,000 twelve months from now. Starbucks still has a reasonable chance of hitting its number within the next ten years.

McDonald's has over 30,000 stores, so why shouldn't Starbucks.

Why not, indeed.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Earnings: Red Flag On Slowing Tech

The market was not unhappy about HP's earnings, but the applause was muted.

HP's revenue rose 7% in its fiscal Q4 to $24.6 billion. The company forecast that annual sales for its 2007 fiscal year would rise about the same amount to $97 billion.

HP's stock fell about 2% after hours to $39.60. The shares have been trading near their 62-week high.

Revenue at HP's big personal systems group, which sells PCs, rose 10% to $7.8 billion, and revenue was up 7% at HP's imaging and printing group, hitting $7.3 billion. But, therein lies the problem. These two units are almost $15 billion of the quarter's $24 billion plus in revenue. And, the growth at the operations are unimpressive.

In fiscal 2004, HP grew 9%. In fiscal 2005, revenue was up 9% again. Even with the share that the company is taking from Dell in the large PC market, HP's rapid growth is behind it, at least for now.

At $40, the stock is now rich. Morningstar carries a "fair market" value of $30 on the stock and suggests that investors consider selling when the stock is above $37.60. For a company that has lost much of its top-line growth potential, that is not unfair.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Earnings: Red Flag On Slowing Tech

Media Digest 11/17/2006 Reuters, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Stocks: (QCOM)(DCX)(HPQ)(SBX)(SHLD)

According to Reuters, Delta is seeking the help of its creditors to fight off a bid by Delta Airlines to acquire the bankrupt carrier.

Reuters writes that the CEO of Qualcomm stated that investors in the company support its intellectual property legal fight although it has depressed the price of the company's stock.

Reuters, writes that DaimlerChrysler is still in talks with Chinese car manufacturer Cherry about building a subcompact car.

Reuters writes that HP profits went up four-fold due to year ago charges. Revenues rose 7% and beat estimates.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Sear Holding's profits tripled due to investments. Sales at its Sears and K Mart units were weak.

The Wall Street Journal also writes that a study by Harvard and Cornell indicates that 850 CEOs of public companies received incorrectly dated options which increased their pay an average of over 10%.

The New York Times reports that oil hit its lowest price in a year as the markets doubted the impact of OPEC production cuts.

The New York Times also writes that the profit as Starbuck's fell 5% due to new accounting methods. Revenue rose 20% to $2 billion.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Asia Markets 11/17/2006 PCCW, Fuji Film Up, Softbank, Yahoo Japan Down

Stocks: (CAJ)(FUJ)(NIPNY)(HMC)(NTT)(TM)(CHL)(CH)(PCW)(HNC)

Markets in Asia were narrowly mixed.

The Nikkei was down .5% to 16,092. Bridgestone was up 1.4% to 2515. Canon was up 1% to 6310. Daiwa Securities was down 1.4% to 1263. Fuji Film was up 2.7% to 4590. Hitachi was up .6% to 707. Honda was up .2% to 4210. Japan Air was off 1.4% to 217. NEC was up 1% to 604. NTT was up 1.2% to 573000. Sharp was down .5% to 2030. Softbank was down 2.6% to 2245. Sony was up 1.3% to 4770. Toshiba was down .3% to 731. Toyota was up .3% to 7260. Yahoo Japan was down 3.6% to 40200.

The Hang Seng was up .2% to 19,183. Cathay Pacific was up 1.7% to 18.98. China Mobile was down 1.1% to 68.65. China Unicom was down 1% to 8.24. HSBC was up .4% to 147.2. PCCW was up 1.9% to 5.23.

The KOSPI was up .1% to 1,412.

The Straits Times was up .5% to 2,813.

The Shanghai Composite was up 1.6% to 1,972.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Sears Holdings Drops 5% After Earnings

By Chad Brand of Peridot Capitalist

It's the same old story with Sears Holdings (SHLD). In fact, I feel like I'm just repeating myself a lot. However, I have long been positive on the stock, and it is one of Peridot's top five holdings, so rather than ignoring it just for the sake of not sounding repetitive, I will likely continue to share my views on the company and the stock's investment merit.

In case you missed it, Sears reported Q3 earnings of $1.27 per share and sales of $11.94 billion. The revenue number was at the high end of estimates, and the earnings number included investment income of 42 cents per share. Excluding one-time charges and investment income, earnings did miss consensus estimates, which caused the sell-off in the stock.

Comments on the quarter across Wall Street were very predictable. Same store sales were down, which is bad and must be turned around at some point. Earnings were up on cost cutting, but such moves can't be maintained forever. Most analysts are ignoring the investment income when looking at the quarterly results, because they are unrelated to operating activities of the main retailing business.

It is my view, however, that ignoring the investment income is a mistake for investors. If an investment in Sears stock was merely a bet on the retail operations, then I can understand not caring about profits derived from investing excess cash. However, a large piece of the investment thesis behind SHLD has been, and will continue to be, Eddie Lampert's ability to allocate excess capital in order to earn returns that far exceed those of the retail business. There is a reason he changed the name of the firm to Sears Holdings. It's a holding company. There is more than just retail here.

Investors who are in Sears merely for the retail operations should probably move on to something else. SHLD will continue to report declines in same store sales and grow profits via cost cutting, share repurchases, and investment income. This will ultimately lead to a tremendous increase in shareholder value.

If, however, you are like me and are investing in this stock for the entirety of the operation, then you should stay with it despite today's decline. Sears is a holding company and will continue to boost shareholder value via multiple ways. In fact, as the company finds new avenues for allocating capital, they will become less and less reliant on Sears and Kmart than they already are. While this will draw criticism from many, especially retailing analysts, the end result will be a rising share price, which is really all that matters to me.

Full Disclosure: I own shares of Sears Holdings personally, and my clients do as well.

http://www.peridotcapitalist.com/

Interview With Steven Drobny- President, Drobny Global Advisors & Author of 'Inside The House of Money'

By Yaser Anwar, CFA of Stock Market Beat

An in-depth discussion pertaining to; Hedge Fund Industry- Implications of M&A boom on Hedge Funds, HFs as Asset Managers, Industry's Marketing Gimmicks, Risk/Reward Trade-offs, Regulation and Correlation to market. Investment banks taking positions in China, Emerging markets and more.

Steven Drobny is the engine behind Drobny Global Advisors. Steven has pushed the firm to new business areas, countries and clients bases. If you want to know who's who or what's what in global macro, ask Steven. To learn more about global macro hedge funds, read his book Inside the House of Money.

Before partnering with his namesake in 2000 (his name was already on the door!), Steven worked for Deutsche Bank in various roles, most recently in the Hedge Fund Group in London. While at DB, Steven also worked in the derivatives and trading groups in London, Zurich and Singapore. Prior to Deutsche, Steve was with AIG Trading in their Metals & Energy Trading Groups.

Steven Drobny also holds a Masters degree from the London School of Economics and a Bachelors degree from Bucknell University.

Wall Street Talk with Yaser Anwar

Guest: Steven Drobny, Author (ITHOM) & President, Drobny Global Advisors

_________________________________________________________

Y: Steven, thank you for joining us

1) Y: A recent trend in the industry has been- Hedge Funds as Asset Management Complexes [Note: DE Shaw's push into traditional asset management. Fortress & MAN Group already are asset management complexes]. If you're running a $5 billion fund, a 2% management fee brings in $100 million without any hassles. Say you're up another 10%, so that's another $100 million. Managers are disincentived to make money. What do you think needs to be done?

S: Nothing. The marketplace will define where investments are made and the fees charged for asset management. Investors are allowed to choose what they want and if they don’t like something they can vote with their feet. Remember, by definition, investors in hedge funds are required to be qualified investors. We are not talking about unsuspecting retail investors getting cold calls from their local stock broker. If performance does not stack up over time, there will likely be adjustments.

2) Y: In 2006, the hedge funds as a group have underperformed mutual funds and market indexes. With over 9K hedge funds seeking to generate alpha, a majority of which utilize the common strategies such as; Convertible Arbitrage & Long/Short Equity, don't you think the market is getting a little too overcrowded?

S: No I don’t. Again, investors that choose to invest with hedge funds are making a conscious decision. As long as that decision is educated, the marketplace should dictate the flow of capital. Whether the number is 900 or 9,000 or 90,000, the marketplace will ultimately decide.

The same thing applies to the different hedge fund strategies. Investors will choose based on performance. In the global macro space, hedge fund managers are at an advantage because of the breadth of their mandate. They are permitted to trade any asset class around the world.

As far as this year, hedge funds as a group are underperforming mutual funds and market indexes. And, this is a market environment in which you would expect that to occur because volatility across markets has collapsed. Long risk assets has been the trade of the year. So, investor portfolios, which are overwhelmingly long assets, have done well.

Hedge funds are meant to occupy a slice of a portfolio because they are traditionally uncorrelated and provide downside protection in volatile markets. The key is producing consistent positive absolute returns uncorrelated with other markets, and if hedge funds can do that, there will be a place for them in investor’s portfolios.

Follow-up question: Where do you see the hedge fund industry going?

S: The industry is going to be constantly evolving. Every six months the industry looks different from the prior six months. The hedge fund business is here to stay because it provides needed portfolio diversification and because it is very attractive from an employment standpoint due to it’s attractive compensation structure.

As long as that doesn’t change, hedge funds will continue to attract the smartest, most talented money managers, and at the end of the day investors are going to want access to that talent. So there always will be a hedge fund business, whether it grows, stabilizes, contracts or even converts into a total asset management business, remains to be seen.

The best comparison is with professional sports. If you are the best basketball player in the world, are you going to play in Italy? No. You’re going to play in the NBA for the highest bidder.

3) Y: When Alfred Jones started his hedge fund back in 1940, his purpose was to generate alpha by a long/short strategy, with returns uncorrelated to the markets. In the 80s and 90s, hedge funds did just that. Of late, HF returns seem increasingly correlated to the broad market indexes. Why do you think so?

S: It really depends on which market indices and which hedge fund strategies you are comparing. There are certainly managers and strategies that will look as if they are correlated to the broader equity markets at certain points. The key is whether they are correlated over time. Again, if managers or strategies fail to deliver, investors will adjust their portfolios.

4) Y: China has seen a large inflow of capital, especially into the financial sector. The major banks; Citigroup, BoA, Goldman, have all taken sizeable stakes in the Chinese financial sector. In other words, the herd seems to be too bullish. What do you make of this trend?

S: It is dangerous to assume the herd is always wrong. The truth is that the inflows into China are being limited by government restrictions. Perhaps the inflows would be much larger if the restrictions were limited.

The key is to ask, “Why are all of these institutions dedicating the time and energy into this market?” Then evaluate whether the opportunity is worth the attention. It seems to be a reflection of a booming, growing emerging market that has attracted capital for the long term.

5) Y: As hedge fund returns have come down over the years, their appetite for risk has rapidly increased. Your partner Andres Drobny (no relation) once said, "To make money and have value you have to have risk/reward parameters dominating what you do in markets."

With the recent debacles such as Amaranth & Archeus Capital (the most famous ones), do you think hedge funds are erring from the risk/reward scenarios, caused by narrowing of spreads (due to an overcrowded industry) and/or chartering in unseen territory?

S: First of all- the one thing the press gets wrong, is that Amaranth or Archeus are symptomatic of the HF industry. As you mentioned earlier there are about 9K hedge funds. We are talking about two funds.

Out of 9K hedge funds, there are going to be some good ones and some bad. The same applies to mutual funds and private equity funds. The key for investors is choosing the talented managers that have a good risk/reward framework and aren’t taking excessive leverage or risk in illiquid markets. At the end of the day, the onus is on the investors to choose and decide which hedge funds are the best out there.

Right now, we’re going through a pretty significant period of low volatility, low interest rates, and tight market spreads. There have been periods of time like this in the past and it typically unwinds back to a more volatile, riskier markets. The question is when and how do we get there and what the path looks like.

7) Y: In your book, Inside The House of Money, you interviewed some of the best traders in the world. Could you tell us one characteristic they all shared?

S: Humility. The popular image of big successful traders pounding their chest and always being right is really the guy that ends up out of the market after a couple of years when a secular or cyclical trend reverses. The best traders that have longevity, who have been through multiple market cycles and have consistently made money are very humble. They know that they are not smarter than the markets and to be in this game for the long term one has to be flexible.

8) Y: M&A activity has been steadily increasing in double-digits since 2002. It seems that 2006 will be the record year, beating the $3.327 trillion in global volume and $1.525 trillion in U.S. volume posted in 2000. With so much buying power, do you foresee another hedge fund strategy, dedicated to say such as LBO and/or PE financing, on the horizon other than Event driven strategies?

S: Perhaps. There will always be innovation in financial markets. Hedge funds are part of that process. Whether there is a different title to the strategy, who knows. Hedge fund strategy titles are mainly for marketing purposes. At the end of the day, what a hedge fund is supposed to do is- make money in any market environment regardless of their strategy.

That is what global macro is all about and has always been about. In terms of slicing and dicing the hedge fund business into smaller more finite, specific strategies, this has typically been a good way to raise money, especially in a world full of liquidity. If liquidity contracts, things may be very different.

9) Lately there has been a lot of chatter about regulating the hedge fund industry. What are your views on regulating the industry- Stricter oversight by the SEC and/or a self-regulating body?

S: The most successful hedge funds are running their business in such a way that is over and above what any regulatory government body would require. If regulation keeps out some of the frauds and scams, then that’s a good thing for the industry. Generally, regulation tends to increase costs with questionable benefit.

But, if regulation can be proven to boost investor confidence, then I am all for it. Again, the key is allowing investors to make educated decisions about their investments. Let the market work. If investors are not comfortable with the way their manager runs the firm, then they should not allocate the capital, regardless of what any government body does.

10) Y: In May, when the US markets were hit by a correction, most emerging markets followed it downwards and when the US markets regained their footing in August so did EM. I have a hard time imagining EM markets up if US markets are down 10% or so. What are your views on emerging markets?

S: EM presents tremendous opportunities just as any new market presents great opportunities. In terms of the US being down 10% and EM being up, it depends. I don’t think you can classify EM as one thing. China is very different from Russia, which is very different from India, which is very different from Brazil, so it depends on which market, what the different economies are doing, and the prospects.

For example: If the US market is down 10% but the US currency is down 50%, perhaps EM will be up, especially if you’re a US based investor. A large part of it depends on what your home currency is.

11) Y: Drobny Global Advisors is known for its unorthodox style of research advisory & investment conferences [Providing actual tradable ideas in a casual atmosphere with the audience concentrated among what’s considered “very smart money”]. You recently wrapped up a conference in Iceland, could you tell us a little about what was discussed?

S: Sure. The overall mood was mixed so the overall general feeling I took away from it was that we are at a major inflection point. Often at turning points, confusion reigns until the new trend is established.

Y: Steven, thank you very much for taking time out for this interview. Best of luck with DGA and look forward to the second edition of Inside The House of Money.

S: Thank you and good luck to you too.

http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/

Cramer Goes Back for Sears Holdings, Again

Last night on CNBC's MAD MONEY Cramer also went over one of his long-standing favorite retail plays: Sears Holdings (SHLD).

He implied that SHLD stock is no different than investing in a company with a hedge fund manager trying to make his stocks go up. After today's drop of almost $10.00 after earnings, Cramer said the stock is going back up. He says this is a gift. He did tell on himself that you have heard him back this stock again and again. He said the bears are harping on same store sales and on inventory build-ups. He said it isn't a screaming buy because of it being a great retail play and not because it is a turnaround story. He says this is an investment ultimately in Eddie Lampert.

He has been there for the last $140 of upside, but he thinks it is going much higher and it may be a baby Berkshire Hathaway. Even though it is expensive on multiples, it will get more expensive and Eddie Lampert is a winner. The company allows Eddie Lampert to invest the profits from Sears and K-Mart elsewhere where he sees fit. The company made $101 million off of outside investments. The street doesn't like that they can't evaluate Sears as a retailer, but Cramer does.

Jon C. Ogg

Cramer Backs Nike and Under Armour

Last night on CNBC's MAD MONEY, Jim Cramer reviewed two stocks in the same sector that are both buys. He said which one you should own depends on your preference.

He said if a company has good management, that means they just aren't screwing up. Nike (NKE) and Under Armour (UARM) got lucky because Reebok screwed up by cutting marketing. Reebok's ad budget was only $7 million after Adidas bought them, and these two won as a result.

Cramer says that even though NKE and UARM are competing, they are different stocks for different investors. He says both are buys.

He says Nike (NKE) is the best for longer-lived investors that look for more stability and more predictability. He noted Under Armour (UARM) is the younger investor's stock that has a lot of room for growth down the road.

NKE trades cheaper, and is more defensive in nature trying toi preserve market share it has. UARM is a high-multiple stock that would crumble if the company messes up. Cramer said UARM's 31% market share could pass NKE's 36%, but UARM could take market share and NKE stock could still keep rising because they are different stories. He thinks UARM will take market share from Reebok since they aren't defending the brand. UARM is one that will get hurt bad if they ever miss an estimate by a penny, and NKE is the stable lion in the group.

UARM closed down 1.28% at $46.25 in regular trading, but shares are up almost 3% from teh close at $47.50 in after-hours trading. NKE closed down 0.25% at $95.23 in regular trading, but shares are up 0.9% at $95.92 in after-hours trading.

Jon C. Ogg

Genetech Wins FDA Approval For Herceptin For Breast Cancer

Genentech (DNA) announced that the FDA approved its Herceptin cancer treatment for an expanded use for adjuvant treatment of HER2-positive node-positive breast cancer. The studies showed a 52% reduction in the recurrence of breast cancer of some 3,500 patients in two Phase III studies and is the only targeted biologic therapy approved for use in adjuvant and metastatic HER2-positive breast cancer.

Adjuvant therapy is given to women with early-stage (localized) breast cancer who have had initial treatment - surgery with or without radiation therapy - with the goal of reducing the risk of cancer recurrence and/or the occurrence of metastatic disease. After three-and-a-half years in the study, 87 percent of women treated with Herceptin plus chemotherapy were disease free, compared to 71 percent of women treated with chemotherapy alone. A survival analysis conducted after patients had been followed for a median of 24 months showed a 33 percent reduction in the risk of death (based on a hazard ratio of 0.67), which is equivalent to a 49 percent improvement in overall survival.

DNA shares closed up 0.35% at $80.72 in regulartrading, but shares are up 0.9% at $81.45 in after-hours trading. DNA has a 52-week trading range of $75.58 to $100.20.

Jon C. Ogg

Autodesk Up and On Auto Pilot

Autodesk (ADSK) just reported record quarter revenues of $457 million, just under the $457.25 million consensus estimate. It is not providing EPS because of the ongoing options review. ADSK closed up 1% at $27.00 in normal trading, but shares are up 6.4% to $39.35 in after-hours trading. The subscription revenues seem to be the game winner as the guidance seems in-line (although guidance may be conservative because of legal ramifications). ADSK 52-week trading range is $29.56 to $47.25.

There was a huge bright spot in what may be considered a slight beat with in-line guidance. Its subscription (recurring) revenues have now grown to $111 million, about 24% of revenues, and up 50% from last year. That is an impressive feat and has been one of the growth drivers to the company.

Total backlog was $352 million as of October 31, 2006, including $333 million of deferred revenues. Deferred subscription revenues increased $12 million sequentially to $275 million and there was $19 million of unshipped product orders at quarter end. Its DSO (days sales outstanding, or days to get paid!) also fell 1 day to 51 days.

There is also guidance (compared to street estimates) where available. Next quarter guidance: Net revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007 are expected to be between $490 million and $500 million ($495M estimate); following quarter guidance: Net revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2008 are expected to be approximately flat with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2007. Fiscal 2007 guidance: For fiscal year 2007, net revenues are expected to be between $1.832 billion and $1.842 billion ($1.84B estimate). Fiscal 2008 guidance: For fiscal year 2008, net revenues are expected to be between $2.075 billion and $2.125 billion ($2.10 Billion estimates).

Jon C. Ogg
November 16, 2006

Starbuck's Decaf (SBUX)

Starbuck's missed Wall St.'s revenue target and had poor earnings to boot. Some was due to changes in the company's accounting practices. Investors wanted revenue of $2.02 billion and the coffee retailer did $2 billion.

While the company's long range goal of hitting a total of 30,000 stores worldwide may not be in jeapordy, it may be set back a few days.

Starbuck's shares are off about 6% after hours to just above $37..

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintrye@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

HP Earnings: Revenue Growth Light (HPQ)

HP announced earnings after the close. Revenue rose only 7% to $24.6 billion. Non-GAAP operating income rose from $1.5 billion in the quater a year ago to $1.9 billion. Desktop sales were flat while notebook unit sales rose 24%. Revenue at the imaging and printing unit rose 7%.

Enterprise storage and server revenue rose 4% to $4.7 billion. And, services revenue rose 5%.

Looking at the results, Paul Meeks, a hardware analyst interviews on CNBC, believes that the results only merit a share price of $40 to $41, which is where the stock trades now.

The forecast for the next quarter is for revenue to be in the $24.1 to $24.3 billion range and for the next fiscal $97 billion.

While revenue and EPS were slightly ahead of Wall St. estimates, the figures hardly constitute a blow out quarter. After rising 40% this year, the shares may be taking a pause.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Starbuck's Decaf (SBUX)

HP Earnings: Revenue Growth Light (HPQ)

How Many Times Will Applied Materials Call the Bottom?

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Last month we wrote a piece asking someone (anyone) to tell Applied Materials (AMAT) CEO Mike Splinter there’s a slowdown coming for semiconductor equipment manufacturers. Apparently someone gave him the message, but he is taking it only half-heartedly.

According to TheStreet.com:
Splinter said he expects Applied’s silicon business to grow by more than 10% in fiscal 2007, outpacing the broader industry.But executives warned of a “modest pullback” among customers in the current quarter.

Applied projected that sales will decline 5% to 10% sequentially in its fiscal first quarter. That suggests a revenue range of $2.41 billion to $2.28 billion, below the average analyst expectation of $2.46 billion.

When we wrote our plea for intervention, we noted that Mike Splinter called the bottom of the last slowdown for about 8 consecutive quarters, so what should we expect? Which brings us to a new (albeit slow-paced) drinking game. From now until there is actually a bottom in semiconductor equipment orders we will take a shot each time Splinter suggests that orders have/will bottom in the current/next quarter.

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed.

The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

Will The Companies Bought By Private Equity Get Turned Back To The Shareholders

A novel class action suit is brewing. Shareholders in several public companies take private by big private equity firms like Blackstone and KKR say that these firms conspired to get good prices in the buy-outs. HCA, Harrah's and Univision are mentioned in the court documents and the suit is based, in part, on an investigation that the Justice Department is doing into potential cooperation among the large private equity operations.

If the plantiffs prevail or get far enough along to force a settlement, one of two things could happen. The private equity firms could pay shareholders a fee between the "fair value" of the public companies and what they paid for them as they were taken private. Or, they could give the companies back to the shareholders and take back the money they paid for the buyout.

Most shareholders would probably just like a little more money per share, but the private equity guys may not see it that way.

If a company is turned back to shareholders, they may do better over time. Any one of these companies could have a few good years and the share prices might rise. Riches for all.

On the other hand, any one of these companies could have a few bad years. Or, the stock market could take a sharp downturn. Then shareholders would lose buckets of money. Of course, then they could sue the management.

Note to shareholders of public companies being taken private: take the money and run.

Douglas A. McInyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Another Problem For Dell: Acer (DELL)(HPQ)(WMT)(AMZN)

Unlike most other PC manufacturers Acer is in high-growth mode. Acer's shipments last year went up 22%, a rate more than double the industry's. Acer's growth in the third quater of this year was also better than its rivals. In short order, Acer may pass Lenovo for third place among PC companies, putting it behind only HP and Dell.

Acer, based in Taiwan, has a fairly low cost base. This helps it sell inexpensive machines in markets like China and India.

But, what about the US. Acer now runs inserts in major US newspapers. Acer's share here is 3.3% but it has been rising. The company now has reselling arrangements with Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Office Depot, CDW, and Amazon.com. In other words, Acer PC are now widely available in the US. Although the company has not set up a direct marking internet operation in the US, it would not be surprising to see that over the next year.

Dell did not need to worry about anything else, but it has not worked out that way.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own shares in companies that he writes about.

China Mobile: It's Good To Be King (CHL)

Stocks: (VZ)(S)(CHL)

China Mobile has almost 300 million customers. It also has plans about how it will get more. The CEO of the world's largest cell company want to make his phones a "Swiss Army knife that can do anything for you." Pretty cool. And, smart.

The company is offering a new music sharing service among phones with the help of News Corp. The company has also done an outstanding job of promoting text messaging and music downloads.

China Mobile is also looking outside its home markets for acquisitions in Asia, South America, and Africa. These are markets that will grow quickly and may not have well-funded and dominant local cell companies.

There may be a lesson in this for US cell companies like Verzion, Cingular, and Sprint. Doing well in the US may not be enough. Penetration of phones is fairly high in this country is fairly high. To let the Chinese take the market opportunities in emerging markets would be a mistake. No matter how big China Mobile is in its home market.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Internet Ad Revenue Slows: Where Will MSN, Yahoo!, And AOL Go?

Stocks: (GOOG)(YHOO)(TWX)(MSFT)

Internet ad revenue grew 33% year-over-previous-year in the third quarter. It hit $4.2 billion for the three month period.

That is the headline and the Internet Advertising Bureau is sticking to it. But, from Q2 to Q3, the number was basically flat. Q2 internet ad money was $4.1 billion.

There are two ways to look at the numbers. One is that revenue is still growing at a reasonable pace. The other is that it is hardly growing at all. The figures from Q4 will tell the tale as holiday marketing dollars pour into all media, and the internet sees if it can post a strong pace over Q3 2006 and Q4 2005.

Quarter-over-pervious quarter numbers are actually fairly dismal. Old Terry Semel, CEO of Yahoo! says that the market is underestimating what will happen with internet marketing dollars as more money is spent on video and social networks. He had better hope so.

While Google is operating almost exclusively in the text based ad end of the internet, Yahoo!, AOL, and MSN has to fight for the banner and button ads that he been the mainstay of online marketing money for several years. Yahoo!'s stock has taken a beating as its revenue from advertising has slowed. The AOL move from subsription-based revenue to advertising depends on a robust market. Time Warner says it can increase ad revenue faster than the market as a whole. But, if the overall market is slowing, that may be cold comfort. Microsoft, which actually lost money in it online businesses last quarter will also depend on a strong online ad market to restart its efforts at MSN.

A rising tide lifts all ships. But, that only works if the tide is rising.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Europe Market Report 11/16/2006 Alcatel, VW, DaimlerChrysler Up

Stocks: (BCS)(BP)(BT)(GSK)(PUK)(RTRSY)(UL)(VOD)(BAY)(DCX)(DB)(DT)(SI)(ALA)(AXA)(FTE)(V)

Markets in Europe were narrowly mixed at 6 AM New York time.

The FTSE was up .1%% to 6,236. Barclays was down .5% to 704. BP was up .3% to 598.5. BT was up .5% to 282.5. GlaxoSmithKline was up .2% to 1368. Prudential was down .7% to 657. Reuters was up .2% to 468.5. Unilever was flat at 1412. Vodafone was up .4% to 139.5.

The DAXX was down a fraction to 5,428. Bayer was down .1% to 40.23. DaimlerChrysler was up 2.2% to 48.56. DeutscheBank was down a fraction at 98.76. Deutsche Telekom was up .4% to 13.89. Siemens was up .1% ot 75.4. VW was up 1.9% to 85.85.

The CAC 40 was down .1% to 5,506. Alcatel was up 1.8% to 10.63. AXA was down .6% to 30.01. France Telecom was up .9% to 20.36. ST Micro was up .7% to 14.34. Vivendi was up .4% to 29.97.

Data from Reuters.

Douglas A. McIntyre

XM's $150 Million GPS (XMSR)(SIRI)(MSFT)(AAPL)

XM Satellite Radio got a nice run-up in its stock yesterday. The company's shares moved from $14 to almost $14.80 and traded above $14.90 for part of the day.

The move added over $150 million to XM's market cap, which now stands just shy of $4 billon.

The uptick in the stock seemed to be based on an announcement that XM has launched its new GPS in some Nissan and Infiniti cars. The navigation system is nice, but the fact that it will be offered in Nissan Altima's is hardly big news.

Satellite radio investors have developed the kind of desparate behavior that is usually exhibited by people who have been without water in the desert for several days usually display.

XM's stock is still down from a 52-week high of $32, and even improved earnings have barely moved the stock.

The market appears to believe that satellite radio is last year's next big thing and Wall St. has moved on to things like the iPod and Xbox.

The question now is whether the two satellite radio companies can do anything to get back the interest of investors. Shy of a sharp acceleration in subscriber growth rates, probably not.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Who Will Replace Rollins At Dell? (DELL)(HPQ)(INTC)(MO)

The Vegas odds are that Kevin Rollins will be out as CEO at Dell. It may be a couple of months, but his fate may already be sealed.

The SEC has accelerated its investigation into Dell's accounting practices. The computer company is expected to reports improved results for the last quarter, but filing of financial data will be delayed while the probe goes on.

Dell has also lost the poll position as the largest computer manufacturer to arch-rival Hewlett-Packard.

Michael Dell, the company founder, must now be completely humiliated by what has happened to his company's reputation and position as one of the premier companies in the US.

If Rollins goes, who gets the job?

1. Michael Dell. The company's founder, he was CEO before Rollins. He may not want to make the time commitment to the several years it will take to get Dell back on top. He does not need the money.

2. Michael Miles. The former CEO of Philip Morris and a Dell board member. Tremendous experience in consumer marketing. Due to his age, a short-term prospect.

3. Todd Bradley. Bradley is the head of HP's personal systems group which includes PCs and technical work stations.

4. William Amelio. Amelio is a former Dell executive who is now CEO of Chinese PC giant Lenovo which tool over the PC operations of IBM.

5. Sean Maloney. Head of sales and marketing at Intel. He has an engineering and marketing background and in his current position works with every major PC and server manufacturer in the world.

Rollins is out. Count on it.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

While GM Fiddles In China, Detroit Burns

Stocks: (GM)(TM)(F)

GM is boasting that its sales in China will grow 15% next year, slightly faster than the overall growth rate in the Asian country. Great.

But GM's sales in China grew over 37% in the first nine months of 2006, so the projection would appear to be a significant slowing. GM sold over 645,000 vehicles in China during that period.

None of this will matter if GM cannot improve operations in it North America operations. And, Toyota is about to see what it can do to the largest's US car company's core product line, pick-ups. Toyota is investing $1.2 billion in a new plant in Texas to build its Tundra pick-up.

Car industry analysts see Toyota's move as a way to pressure margins in the key pick-up segment of Ford and GM's sales. Pick-ups not only have large sales volumes. They also are highly profitable.

GM can do what it wants in China. Its largest rival is coming from Japan to eat its lunch in the US.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Sprint And Microsoft: Also-Rans Team Up

Stocks: (S)(MSFT)(GOOG)(YHOO)(VOD)(VZ)

Sprint and Microsoft have announced a strategic alliance to provide search functions on Sprint cell phones. Microsoft has been trying to get into this business in the US for some time. Microsoft is in a fierce competition with Google and Yahoo! to provide mobile search. The programs will be supported by advertising. Sprint and Microsoft will split the proceeds.

Microsoft rival Google already has deals with Vodafone and Japanese cell carrier KDDI, so the amount of mobile real estate available to search companies is already shrinking.

Some of the cell phone carriers like Alltel are avoiding using Microsoft, Google, and Yahoo! altogether. Alltel has done a deal with start-up JumpTap. Verizon has its own systems called VZ Navigation.

The deal with Sprint offers some affirmation the the No. 3 US cell operator still has a very valuable base for offering services from companies like Microsoft. And, Microsoft, which is desparate to flank Google and Yahoo! in mobile search gets a large footprint for its search offerings which are currently a distant third place on the web.

Two companies in third place. What does 3+3 equal?

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Media Digest 11/16/2006 Reuters, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Stocks: (JNJ)(AMGN)(V)(TWX)(MSFT)(S)(MRK)(DELL)(GM)(T)

According to Reuters, VW's stock is up on speculation that Porsche could make a bid for the entire company. Porsche is already the largest shareholder.

Reuters writes that Hertz IPO raised $1.32 billion.

Reuters reports that Vivendi's profits were lifted by its video game business.

Reuters also writes that Time Warner ousted the CEO of AOL and replaced him with a high ranking executive from NBC Universal.

According to the Wall Street Journal, US Airways offered Delta $8.67 billion for the airline which is still in Chapter 11.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Dell has announced that the SEC has stepped up its investigation into the computer makers accounting practices which will cause a delay in quarterly filing from the company.

The Wall Street Journal reports that GM will name a former AT&T financial official as its chief accounting officer after a series of financial restatements at the large car maker.

The Wall Street Journal also writes that Merck has won another federal trial over the affects of its painkiller Vioxx.

The Wall Street Journal also reports that Sprint will begin to offer local search on its phones. The system will be powered by Microsoft.

The New York Times writes that high doses of anemia drugs from Johnson & Johnson and Amgen are linked to heart attacks. Sales of the two drugs total about $9 billion a year.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Asia Markets 11/16/2006 PCCW, Cathay Pacific Up, China Netcom Down

Stocks: (CAJ)(FUJ)(HIT)(NIPNY)(NTT)(HMC)(TM)(CHL)(CN)(PCW)(HBC)

Asian markets were narrowly mixed.

The Nikkei was down .5% to 16,164. Bridgestone was down .8% to 2,480. Canon was up .2% to 6250. Daiwa Securities was down 1.2% to 1281. Fuji Film was down 1.8% to 4470. Hitachi was down .7% to 703. Honda was down 1.2% to 4200. Japan Air was down 1.3% to 220. NEC was down .3% to 598. NTT was up .5% to 566000. Sharp was down 1.4% to 2040. Softbank was down 1.1% to 2305. Toshiba was down .7% to 733. Toyota was down .8% to 7230. Yahoo Japan was down 1.5% to 41700.

The Hang Seng was up .3% to 19,154. Cathay Pacific was up 2.3% to 18.66. China Mobile was up 1.5% to 69.4. China Netcom was down 3.3% to 15.28. HSBC was down .7% to 146.6. PCCW was up 1.4% to 5.13.

The KOSPI was down .1% to 1,411.

The Straits Times was up .6% to 2,795.

The Shanghai Composite was up 1% to 1,942.

Data from Reuters

Douglas A. McIntyre

Farallon Capital Discloses Confidentiality and Standstill Agreement with Mills (MLS)

From 13D Tracker

In an amended 13D filing on Mills Corp. (NYSE: MLS) 10.9% holder Farallon Capital disclosed a Confidentiality and Standstill Agreement with the company.

The firm said at the request of the Company and as a condition to being included in discussions about a possible strategic transaction (if any) involving the Company, they have agreed to be subject to the "standstill" arrangements.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

SAC Capital's Latest Adjustments

From 13D Tracker

Another 13F filing of interest. This one from one of the world's largest and most well respected hedge funds SAC Capital, which is run by Steve Cohen.

SAC is not a buy and hold type investor, so while interesting the stocks may not be good piggybacks:

Some positions closed out: FPL Group Inc. (NYSE: FPL) (sold 1.9M shares), Emulex Corp. (NYSE: ELX) (sold 2.3M shares), Laidlaw International Inc. (NYSE: LI) (sold 1.3M shares), Source Interlink Companies Inc. (Nasdaq: SORC) (sold 2.5M shares), Level 3 Communications Inc. (Nasdaq: LVLT) (sold 5.8M shares).

Some new positons: NTL Inc. (Nasdaq: NTLI) (added 2.5M shares), Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC) (added 1.45M shares), Pentair Inc. (NYSE: PNR) (added 1.3M shares)

Some raised positons: Business Objects SA (Nasdaq: BOBJ) (added 2.85M shares), Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) (added 2.6M shares), Phelps Dodge Corp. (NYSE: PD) (added 482K shares)

Some lowered position: Inco Ltd. (NYSE: N) (cut 1.5M shares), International Paper Co. (NYSE: IP) (cut 2.6M shares), Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX) (cut 5.6M shares).

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

Changes in Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Holdings

From 13D Tracker

While certainly not an activist investors, Warren Buffett's moves are always newsworthy:

Here are his latest from a quarterly 13F filing yesterday.:

The firm showed a new 10 million share position in Western Union Co. (NYSE: WU).

The firm raised its stake in USG (NYSE: USG) from 10.2 million shares to 16.7 over the quarter (already known through 13D). The firm raised its stake in Lowes (NYSE: LOW) from 780K to 7 million over the quarter. The firm raised its stake in Nike (NYSE: NKE) from 2.47 million to 4 million shares. The firm raised its stake in Iron Mountain Inc. (NYSE: IRM) from 5 million to 6 million.

The firm lowered its stake in Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. (NYSE: BUD) from 43.5 million shares to 36.4 million. The firm lowered its stake in Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) from 5.5 million to 746K. The firm lowered its stake in Ameriprise Financial Inc. (NYSE: AMP) from 23.9 million to 19.3 million over the quarter (already known from 13G, currently at 14.72 million). The firm lowered its stake in H&R Block (NYSE: HRB) from 11.4 million shares to 10.98 million shares.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

Analog Devices Conference Call Review

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Having had a chance to review the Analog Devices (ADI) conference call, we came away with a few observations. We’ll start with the commentary from CEO Jerald Fishman:

I think first and most importantly, for the full year of 2006, our sales to our broad base of industrial customers have increased 15% from 2005. Revenues from industrial customers for the year represented 42% of our sales, and industrial applications remained one of the most fragmented markets in the electronics industry.

Within this overall category that we call industrial products, sales to instrumentation customers was up 20% year over year, motor control was up 23% year over year, medical was up 24% year over year, power metering up 16%, and sales into defense applications increased 17%.

While sales to automotive customers increased only slightly last year, our newest products are designed into many new platforms that will begin to appear in 2007 and 2008 models.

This is in keeping with our take on Rockwell Automation (ROK), as well as today’s Econoday article. However, we are scratching our heads over his next comment:

Our sales to ATE customers increased 11% year to year, but ATE continues to be a very challenging market, as semiconductor capital spending still remains very choppy.

If they describe a market in which orders have been up about 60% from the previous year for the last six months as “choppy” we can’t wait to see how they describe the downturn we believe is looming.

Fishman also listed a number of factors that will impact the current quarter, including the fact that comparisons are affected by an extra week of selling time:

Our first quarter in 2007 will be influenced by a number of factors. Our opening OEM backlog for Q1 is down $11 million from the beginning of Q4 as the result of generally lower bookings during the quarter, primarily as a result of excess inventory in infrastructure, handset and automatic test equipment [inaudible] our customers.

While distribution bookings were also weaker in Q4, end market re-sales remain stable, indicating continuing firm demand from our broad base of industrial customers. Our end customer book-to-bill ratio was approximately 0.98 for the quarter.

Our lead times have decreased again during Q4, which would imply a greater percentage of our revenues will be derived from turns business, which is business that we booked and we shipped in the same quarter. I think this is very typical at this point in the cycle.

Our Q1 will also be a 14-week quarter, which occurs once every seven years to adjust for the fact that 52 weeks is slightly different than 365 days. This should provide a revenue boost which could offset the normal seasonality due to the holiday period that we usually experience.

Also, as mentioned in our press release, during Q1 we will record a $35 million revenue as a result of a recently completed license transaction. This will not be repeated in future quarters and will also be excluded from our non-GAAP measures.

As a result of all these factors, when you add them all up, our revenue plan for Q1 is in the range of $635 million to $670 million, which does not include the one-time $35 million license fee.

The extra week was the subject of a great deal of back-and-forth during the conference call, and likely explains why the market performance today is not as strong as the post-market trading yesterday seemed to indicate.

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

Buffett’s Latest Portfolio Moves & Soros Takes Major Stake in AMD, Chipotle & Cisco

By Yaser Anwar, CSC of Equity Investment Ideas

Note: Dear Readers- The analysis below was taken from an email newsletter by MoneyNews.

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway made some adjustments to its investment portfolio in the third quarter, reducing its stake in some and adding shares in others, according to regulatory filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

First, let’s look at the cutbacks: Target, Anheuser-Busch, and H&R Block.

Berkshire just disclosed its stake in Target at the end of October, buying 5.5 million shares or $268 million worth of the nation’s second largest discount retailer in the second quarter. But just as quickly, Berkshire sold off about 4.75 million shares, bringing its stake in Target to just 745,700 shares.

Target announced yesterday a 16 percent jump in third quarter profits to 59 cents per share, beating expectations. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings to come in at 55 cents a share.

Berkshire sold 7.11 million shares in Anheuser-Busch, the world’s largest brewer, after making an initial investment of 44.7 million shares or 5.7 percent of the company last year. Berkshire’s remaining investment was 36.4 million at the end of September.

Berkshire cut its stake in tax preparer H&R Block, reducing shares to 10.97 million from 11.93 million.
Now, let’s look at where the company added to its positions: Lowe’s, Nike, and Iron Mountain.

Berkshire made a significant increase in its stake in home-improvement retailer Lowe’s, boosting the amount of shares from 390,000 to 6.79 million. Lowe’s and Home Depot, Lowe’s main competitor, have both cut their earnings outlook in the face of the housing slump. Buffett owns 4.18 million of Home Depot stock, too. Apparently, Buffett thinks now’s the time to buy.

The company also hiked its stake in Nike, the world’s biggest athletic-shoe maker, from 2.47 million shares to 4 million shares. Berkshire added a million shares of Iron Mountain, the largest seller of records-management services, to its portfolio, raising its stake to 6 million shares.

Berkshire Hathaway also gained 10 million shares of Western Union as part of its spinoff from First Data Corp. in September.
Soros’s hedge fund added to its equities position by taking major stakes in a few companies.

Soros Fund Management LLC increased its equities investments by 38 percent in the third quarter, investing nearly $2.9 billion, according to the filings. Soros bought a $20 million stake in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and an $11 million position in Chipotle Mexican Grill, which recently spun off from parent company McDonalds.

The fund also added to its position in Cisco Systems, bringing the investment to $30 million worth of shares from $2.4 million worth in the second quarter, a 1,150 percent increase in the stake.

Soros also decided that some energy companies are a bargain right now, while others are not. The Soros fund invested $42 million in Occidental Petroleum and $31 million in Valero Energy. However, the fund sold $15 million worth of shares in both Massey Energy Corp. and Pioneer Natural Resources.

Soros seemingly has mixed feelings about health-care companies too. His fund picked up $12 million worth of shares in health benefits company WellPoint, and sold $22 million worth of the iShares Nasdaq Biotech Index.

Soros also sold his entire $2.5 million stake in Yahoo, in favor of buying a $2 million stake in rival Google.

The hedge fund also invested $18 million in McData Corp’s convertible debt.

http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/

Catalysts That Make Rayoneir (RYN) A Buy

By Yaser Anwar, CSC of Equity Investment Ideas

On October 23rd, I highlighted Rayoneir for its timberland assets. Since then the stock has barely moved & is still attractive. Here's why:

Rayonier owns 1.6 million acres of timberland in the southeastern US. University of Florida’s Food and Resource Economics Department, which issues the annual land-value survey, Timberland in Northeast Florida is worth $3,864 per acre. RYN also owns about 400K acres in Pacific Northwest, which at $2K an acre would be worth $800 million.

Right now, RYN has a market cap of $3.1bn, whereas I've calculated liquidation value of it's 1.6 mil acres at 3K/acre= $4.8 billon. Let's timber will fall in price so- 1.6mil acres at $2500/acre= $4billion. That's ignoring all it's other businesses and land in Australia and New Zealand.
The reason I believe the Street is valuing the stock like that:

1) RYN has no earnings leverage to commodity paper prices, hence if paper prices were to rally, Rayonier could underperform its paper-heavy peers.

2) The Street is valuing Rayonier at roughly $2K per US acre, assuming its international operations in Australia & New Zealand, real estate, and paper mills are worthless.

3) As of late, housing starts are falling, which positively correlate with lumber futures/prices. Similarly, Lumber & Timber have a positive correlation. Hence, if housing market dwindles so does lumber & timberland. Hence the cheaper valuation.

4) RYN's exposure to Florida & portfolio of properties close to the beach in the southeastern (hurricane fears, which now seem to be subdued).

5) On Oct. 25th, management's outlook was mediocre (at least according to me). RYN expects 4th Q results to be less than the 3rd Q due to a drop in real estate sales.

I recommend getting into TOL back when it reported in August (24 then 28 now) because in my opinion the time to rotate back into housing and timber REITS/stocks is before the next Fed cut.

Yesterday HD rose even after it lowered guidance and missed estimates by 2 cents, because the street believed the next Fed move will be to cut rates.

In closing, I believe timber is a great investment. Why? From 1972-2001, an investor in timber saw average annual returns of over 14.5%. In other words, if you had invested $10,000 in timber in 1972, you'd be sitting on over half a million dollars right now .

And the best stock to make it with is RYN. Why? Due to the stable business, long-term outperformance of timber, attractive properties, almost 5% dividend yield & most importantly- The valuation. RYN trades at a 20% EV/EBITDA discount to PCL & as I mentioned in the last post, I believe it's (timber) land is also undervalued.

http://www.equityinvestmentideas.blogspot.com/

Cramer Says The Canadian Trusts Are Oversold, Buy the Canadian Oil Trusts

Cramer on MAD MONEY said you can now BUY the Canadian oil trusts after they took a huge beating from the Canadian tax changes.

Canetic Resource Trust (CNE) with a 19% yield;
Enterra Energy Trust(ENT) with a 20% yield.

The Canadians allowed all TRUST shares to pass on a dividend TAX FREE, but the breaking of a campaign promise not to tax these trust as corporations was made. In 4 years there will be 35% of the dividends shaved off for Canadian taxes. He said the trusts fell 10% to 30% immediately on the news, which you know if you follow them.

He said the bounce started today and it will continue, but you are also getting a call option essentially free that the new Candian legislation will be stopped or changed.

He has 3 more that fit the bill. He thinks that these are huge dividend names Pengrowth (PGH), Baytex Energy (BTE), and Precision Drilling (PDS). They are all bouncing on big volume and these are all buys.

Jon C. Ogg

Cramer Says To Hell with Microsoft's Zune, BUY APPLE (AAPL)!!!!

On tonight's MAD MONEY segment on CNBC, Cramer went over a stock where it was hit because of competition. He said Microsoft (MSFT) just took aim at Apple (AAPL) with Zune's launch against iPod.

Cramer said "the Microsoft launch is officially being pronounced a dud!"...... That is not "dude". He thinks AAPl is a fantastic must own stock and the Zune he even noted as the "Edsel," an old Ford failed car launch that was a dud. He thinks the Zune colors stink and the Zune music store is also a dud. He also said that the fact that it is made by Microsoft, and kids and many others hate them.

He said the Zune is not Vista compatible. It is a rejiggered Toshiba and if they want to take on AAPL they should do a better design. Zune's rankings are also lower than expected. At Amazon.com this was only #12 yesterday on electronics and #7 today. If it was great on launch it would be #1.

Cramer said that AAPl has been impervious to this launch. HE said they still have a tiny market share, but they have 50% of market share with upper-end college students. He thinks their retail initiative is great and they are even testing Mac sales at Best Buy.

After Cramer said this AAPL traded up after-hours an additional 0.8% to $84.75, although it closed down 1.1% at $84.05 today. Cramer said he thinks AAPL is a $100.00 stock "By the end of the year."

Jon C. Ogg

A Little Fiasco At Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Retailer Zumiez announced earnings that looked good on paper. Revenue for the period ending October 28 rose 43% to $82 million. Same store sales were up over 10%, but that slowed a bit from over 13% for the first nine months.

Net income for the three month period was $6.8 million. That was up from $5.3 million in the same quarter a year ago. Not much movement there.

Guidance was lackluster. "The company stated that it is maintaining guidance for fiscal 2006 to $0.66 to $0.67 in diluted earnings per share." Not much of an endorsement for Q4 action.

The stock was beaten to within an inch of its life on the news. It fell 13% almost immediately and was down to $27.30. The company's 52-week high/low is $38.85/$18.06.

There should be a lot of unhappy shareholders come this morning.

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

A Little Fiasco At Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Value Act Capital Lowers Stake in Williams Scotsman (WLSC)

From 13D Tracker

In an amended 13D filing on Williams Scotsman International, Inc (NASDAQ: WLSC), Value Act Capital disclosed a 4.9% stake (2.1 million shares) in the company. This is down from the 2.52 million share stake the firm disclosed in an August 13D filing.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

Spirent Communications (SPM) Rejects Large Shareholder Proposal for Board Representation

From 13D Tracker

Spirent Communications Plc (NYSE: SPM) said it considered and rejected a proposal from Sherborne Investors GP, LLC to remove the Company Chairman, the Chairman of the Audit Committee and the Chairman of the Remuneration Committee and to replace them with four Sherborne nominees.

The company said a Spirent Board proposed by Sherborne would comprise four Sherborne nominees (led by Mr Bramson of Sherborne who would become Chairman), one Lexa BV nominee, two independent non-executive directors and two executive directors.

The company said they offered Sherborne two seats on the Spirent Board, one as Deputy Chairman and one as Chairman of the Audit Committee, but this offer was rejected.

Sherborne has previously notified Spirent that it holds 130,250,000 shares in the Company, representing 14.68% of the issued share capital and Lexa BV has previously notified Spirent that it held 120,000,000 shares in the Company, representing 13.52% of the issued share capital.

http://www.13dtracker.blogspot.com/

Red Hat Gets A Break, Finally (RHAT)(NOK)(MSFT)(NOVL)

After being pounded in the market when its Linux solution was left out of Microsoft's alliance with alternative Linux shop Novell, Red Hat has finally gotten a break. Nokia has chosen Red Hat's Linux software system for it network server platforms.

While Red Hat has more market share in the Linus OS business than Novell, the deal, with its huge marketing support, boosted a flagging Novell.

Red Hat's stock has fallen from $32 in May to its current price of under $17. But, the stock may have run too far, too fast before that. It stood at under $11 in May 2005, so it had tripled in a year.

Wall St. should not forget that Red Hat is nicely profitable, and growing. In the last reported quarter ending August 31, the company did just shy of $100 million, and had an operating profit of over $9 million. Revenue had gone up each of the three immediate quarters.

Novell's deal with Microsoft may put it too close to the huge software company that many enterprise customers do not trust. Microsoft has made "land grabs" in the past, and companies like Nokia may elect to use Red Hat over the rival "Novell brought to you by Microsoft" Linux solution.

For Red Hat, not all the news is bad.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Target: Looking for some holiday cheer - Nov. 14, 2006 (WMT)(HD)(TGT)

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

A couple of months ago, we addressed the prospects of slowing consumer spending by saying, “Slowdown? Maybe. But if you have the right merchandise consumers will still spend more than they earn.”

Now we get a similar assessment from CNNMoney:
Moreover, since consumer purchases fuel two-thirds of the economy, these two months provide a vital temperature-taking of the overall health of the nation’s economy.Any significant slowdown in consumer spending immediately raises concerns that the economy as a whole will likely follow.

So how do things look so far? Despite the retail picture being a little muddy this year, analysts for the most part seem to agree that consumers are not yet shying away from shopping.
They’re just becoming more cautious and more picky about where they shop.

Betting against the consumer is always a long shot. Sometimes they come in, but usually they don’t. Given the housing weakness, this may be the year for it. However, it’s not something we’ll put a lot of money on.

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

http://stockmarketbeat.com/blog1/

Embraer Shares Shrug Off Sales Decline

By William Trent, CFA of Stock Market Beat

Embraer (ERJ) reported a sales and profit decline due to production problems with the ramp up of its 190 and 195 aircraft. The issue caused deliveries to fall to 30 aircraft from 41 over the same period last year. Embraer had warned about the problem, cutting its delivery forecast for this year to 135 planes from 145. But it raised its 2007 delivery estimate to at least 160 from 150.

Because of the fact that it appears to be timing-related (and of much lower magnitude than the issues at Airbus (EADS) investors appear inclined to shrug off the problems. Over the long run, we think Embraer is sitting in the sweet spot between the large planes nobody will want to fly on and the smaller turboprop planes nobody wants to fly on.

We think it is only a matter of time before some carrier decides to create an uber-Southwest (LUV) and launch non-stop regional jet service between large markets and middle tier markets that currently require a connection on the hub-and-spoke model airlines. That could really result in a new order boost.

The author may hold a position in the securities discussed. The author's current holdings are as follows: Long: Intuit (INTU) put options; Nasdaq 100 (QQQQ) put options; Bookham (BKHM; Ballard Power (BLDP); Syntax Brillian (BRLC); CMGI (CMGI); Genentech (DNA); Ion Media Networks (ION); Lion's Gate (LGF); Three Five Systems (TFS); Adobe Systems (ADBE) call options; Ceradyne (CRDN); IShares Japan (EWJ); StreetTracks Gold (GLD); Starbucks (SBUX); U.S. Oil Fund (USO); Plantronics (PLT) call options; Short: Lion's Gate (LGF) call options; Dell (DELL) put options; Ceradyne (CRDN) call options; Plantronics (PLT) put options.

Microsoft Pokes Cable And Telecoms

Stocks: (MSFT)(CMCSA)(TWX)(GOOG)(T)(VZ)

Microsoft has decided to set up free wireless internet in Portland. For everyone. The whole city. Google has looked at a similar initiative in San Francisco.

Since Microsoft is providing its IPTV platform to a number of telecoms like AT&T and Verizon, the move could eventually put it at odds with some of its largest customers.

Microsoft's free wireless broadband will be supported by advertising that will run at the top of the browser page. The big software company understands the process well since online advertising is already a large source of revenue for its MSN division.

But, free wireless broadband does not exactly help cable companies and telecoms who are selling broadband access over their networks. AT&T, Verizon, Comcast, and Time Warner Cable bring in a large portion of their revenue from broadband-to-the-home. It is always hard to compete with "free" expecially if the product is good.

While it is too early to tell whether Microsoft can turn a profit with ad supports wireless broadband, if it works in Portland traditional broadband suppliers could find that they have a new, very well funded competitor.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

The Stock Exchanges Vs. The Internet: Free Quotes For All

Stocks: (NYX)(NDAQ)(TWX)(YHOO)

The large internet sites that deliver financial news object to the fees that Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange plan to charge for stock quotes. It would appear, at first glance, that the fight is purely economic. The internet sites don't want to pay much for quotes because it adds to the content cost structure and makes it more expensive to offer services to draw visitors. The exchanges have a more acute problem. Data fees make up so much income for them that a lost of the fees might wipe out much of their operating profits. A look at the 10-Q for the NYSE Group shows revenue of $603 million for the September quarter. Data fees were over $57 million of that. The company's operating profit was almost $68 million. Those data fees are important.

The finanacial internet sites have some many visitors that it could cost them millions of dollars to offer real-time quotes to their users, and now the exchanges want to up the cost of that data.

But, the fights goes beyond revenue and profit.

The banks that pay huge transaction fees to the exchanges and the companies that also shell out huge sums for their listings may not be entirely happy with a system that makes quotes more expensive and, perhaps, less available to investors due to cost. Do Apple and GM really want the barrier to getting quotes on their stocks raised? Or, would they rather have as many investors as possible with access to the data? Not a difficult question to answer.

One can see listed companies putting pressure on exchanges to distribute live quotes for a little as possible, if not for free.

Another difficult matter is the question of monopoly. When the exchanges were non-profits is was more palatable for them to charge for quotes that were not available elsewhere. But, they are not "for profit" institutions and they have bought up all of the electronic trading platforms that could offer quotes outside the exchange system. There is now, in essence, only one game in town. In general, the government has not supported "for profit" monopolies, at least not for any extended period of time.

There is another important set of players in this game: the investment banks who pay transaction fees to the exchanges. In Europe, seven investment banks including Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS, have said they are considering setting up their own trading platform to take volume away from the London Stock Exchange. Why? The banks believe that the fees that they pay to the exhange are too high. It may be more efficient to simply set up a competing system.

The internet war with the stock exchanges is likely to become much more complex. If listed companies and investment banks begin to assert their own interests, the exchanges could have more problems than those created by petitions from Yahoo! and AOL.

Douglas A. McIntyre can be reached at douglasamcintyre@247wallst.com. He does not own securities in companies that he writes about.

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Archives

Friday, November 17, 2006

China Car Market: What If Everyone's Market Share Goes Up 100%

It’s That Time of Year for Intuit

Hewlett Packard (HPQ)

Oil Revisited

GM Boasts About Asia (GM)(HMC)(F)(TM)(DX)

VoIP Comes Of Age (VG)(CMCSA)(TMS)(TWX)(EBAY)

VoIP Comes Of Age (VG)(CMCSA)(TMS)(TWX)(EBAY)

Ghosn And Nissan Get Blackballed (DCX)(F)(GM)

While Ford's Sales Double In China, Will It Be Around To Enjoy It

Investors Get Ticked At Starbucks (SBUX)(MCD)

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Earnings: Red Flag On Slowing Tech

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) Earnings: Red Flag On Slowing Tech

Media Digest 11/17/2006 Reuters, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Asia Markets 11/17/2006 PCCW, Fuji Film Up, Softbank, Yahoo Japan Down

Sears Holdings Drops 5% After Earnings

Interview With Steven Drobny- President, Drobny Global Advisors & Author of 'Inside The House of Money'

Cramer Goes Back for Sears Holdings, Again

Cramer Backs Nike and Under Armour

Genetech Wins FDA Approval For Herceptin For Breast Cancer

Autodesk Up and On Auto Pilot

Starbuck's Decaf (SBUX)

HP Earnings: Revenue Growth Light (HPQ)

Thursday, November 16, 2006

Starbuck's Decaf (SBUX)

HP Earnings: Revenue Growth Light (HPQ)

How Many Times Will Applied Materials Call the Bottom?

Will The Companies Bought By Private Equity Get Turned Back To The Shareholders

Another Problem For Dell: Acer (DELL)(HPQ)(WMT)(AMZN)

China Mobile: It's Good To Be King (CHL)

Internet Ad Revenue Slows: Where Will MSN, Yahoo!, And AOL Go?

Europe Market Report 11/16/2006 Alcatel, VW, DaimlerChrysler Up

XM's $150 Million GPS (XMSR)(SIRI)(MSFT)(AAPL)

Who Will Replace Rollins At Dell? (DELL)(HPQ)(INTC)(MO)

While GM Fiddles In China, Detroit Burns

Sprint And Microsoft: Also-Rans Team Up

Media Digest 11/16/2006 Reuters, Wall Street Journal, New York Times

Asia Markets 11/16/2006 PCCW, Cathay Pacific Up, China Netcom Down

Farallon Capital Discloses Confidentiality and Standstill Agreement with Mills (MLS)

SAC Capital's Latest Adjustments

Changes in Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Holdings

Analog Devices Conference Call Review

Buffett’s Latest Portfolio Moves & Soros Takes Major Stake in AMD, Chipotle & Cisco

Catalysts That Make Rayoneir (RYN) A Buy

Cramer Says The Canadian Trusts Are Oversold, Buy the Canadian Oil Trusts

Cramer Says To Hell with Microsoft's Zune, BUY APPLE (AAPL)!!!!

A Little Fiasco At Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Wednesday, November 15, 2006

A Little Fiasco At Zumiez (ZUMZ)

Value Act Capital Lowers Stake in Williams Scotsman (WLSC)

Spirent Communications (SPM) Rejects Large Shareholder Proposal for Board Representation

Red Hat Gets A Break, Finally (RHAT)(NOK)(MSFT)(NOVL)

Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Target: Looking for some holiday cheer - Nov. 14, 2006 (WMT)(HD)(TGT)

Embraer Shares Shrug Off Sales Decline

Microsoft Pokes Cable And Telecoms

The Stock Exchanges Vs. The Internet: Free Quotes For All